Shenhuo (000933)： Yunnan Shenhuo’s performance in line with expectations is expected to boost performance
Shenhuo (000933): Yunnan Shenhuo’s performance in line with expectations is expected to boost performance
Event: The company released three quarterly reports, and realized a profit of 2.2-2.9 billion yuan in the first three quarters. Non-recurring gains and losses have greatly increased, and the company’s funding 杭州夜网论坛 pressure is expected to ease.During the reporting period, the company realized a profit of RMB 2.2-2.9 billion, including non-recurring gains and losses of 32.1.7 billion.Non-recurring gains and losses include: Consensus on the settlement agreement involved in the company’s transfer of the exploration right of Gaojiazhuang Coal Mine in Zuoquan County, Shanxi Province, has been completed, and the income has been realized30.1.9 billion; the company transferred the equity of Henan Shenhuo Guangming Real Estate Development Co., Ltd. to realize the income4.35 ppm; due to the shutdown of the electrolytic aluminum production line at Yongcheng’s headquarters, it was confirmed that the relevant assets were scrapped and lost1.4.8 billion.The semi-annual report for 2019 shows that the company’s interest-bearing debt totals nearly 20 billion yuan and financial expenses amount to 8.4 ppm, resistivity as high as 85%, while the company’s current ratio, quick ratio and cash ratio are 0.4, 0.32 and 0.22, all of which are seriously lower than 1, highlighting the company’s cash flow pressure, and the company’s non-recurring gains and losses have helped the company improve its cash flow situation. Profit of coal business segment decreased by 0.5.7 billion.Due to changes in the coal mining face in Xuchang mining area, coal production and sales have decreased by 25 per year.94 samples, the unit complete cost increased by 103 in ten years.98 yuan / ton, reducing total profit by 2.81 ppm; tax-excluded maximum budget extended by 28.32 yuan / ton, increasing total profit by 5,737.580,000 yuan.Coal production and sales at Xuehu Coal Mine in Yongcheng Mining Area increased by 32.55 is the lowest, and unit cost reduction is 39.49 yuan / ton, increasing total profit by 2,989.710,000 yuan; excluding the increase in the tax ceiling 63.13 yuan / ton, increasing the total profit1.3.7 billion.Total profit of the coal business segment decreased by 0.5.7 billion. Aluminium business has improved.The company’s Xinjiang electrolytic aluminum business maximized profits4.16 trillion, maximize profits in the third quarter2.580,000 yuan, an increase of 8,179.630,000 yuan.Affected by the rise in the prices of major raw and auxiliary materials such as alumina and other factors, the company’s Xinjiang region’s complete cost of electrolytic aluminum products decreased by 367.92 yuan / ton, increasing profits to maximize every year2.27 ppm; electrolytic aluminum prices fall by 123 per year.78 yuan / ton, reducing total profit by 7,470.590,000 yuan.The electrolytic aluminum plant of this department has closed down since June after the capacity replacement and transfer, and the report may cause operational deterioration.8.1 billion. Profit forecast and rating.The Yunnan Shenhuo 45 coal mine project has been put into operation, and the expansion of production 杭州夜网 capacity of the headquarters has been completely closed. The replacement of calibrated hydropower and aluminum will replace the idle capacity, which will significantly boost the company’s performance.Maintain the company’s “overweight” rating, and it is expected that the EPS for 2019-2021 will be 0.18 yuan, 0.30 yuan, 0.32 yuan, corresponding to the current sustainable PE is 28.5 times, 16.7 times, 15.4 times. Risk warning: economic fluctuations, falling aluminum prices, rising alumina prices, and falling coal prices.